I've come up with the following:
After accepting the gambit, the key position appears on move 15. Move 15 gives White a deep dilemma - whether to exchange on d5 or not. This is a difficult question - W's light-squared bishop on b3 is one of W's only active pieces, and has active play where B plays f5.
In the line above, I've looked at exchanging the bishop for the knight. The idea is that the e3 square is important to W's defence. Whilst this significantly weakens the light squares around W's king, B's LSB is not in a position to immediately exploit this and the isolated d5 pawn is a significant weakness. Qf3 takes advantage of this, and B must play actively and not simply defend the pawn.
If not, then it seems W can easily deflect the attack by swapping darksquared bishops:
In such a position, B's initiative has been blunted and the LSB is hindered by the weak d5 pawn. Plans for White would include moving the knight to the nice outpost on c5 via d2-b3-c5, activating the a-file rook via a4, and targetting the d5 pawn. B may try to weaken W's pawn structure via b4 but that doesn't look too worrying. More likely, he'll play to push on the kingside. Of course, W should be wary of Bf5-e4, exploiting the weak light squares around W's queen. W should then try and take Queens off the board,
Regardless, back to more active lines for B. The two main options seem to be Bg4 or Bf5. Bf5, aiming for e4, seems dangerous, especially if followed by Rae8.
W wants to take an extra pawn on d5 as the price for weak light squares around their king. W's pieces are still underdeveloped and comparatively bad, but W's ability to block the e-file via Be3 and protect some of the light squares via Nd2 may be enough to hold on.
One example of this is after Bf5, where the d2 knight appears to save the game by holding onto e4.
This position is, of course, by no means ideal as W's position is still tangled, given his bishop on e1. But if W can hold on, the passed d pawn will become the decider.
Black might also not swap rooks, for example:
In the line above, I've looked at exchanging the bishop for the knight. The idea is that the e3 square is important to W's defence. Whilst this significantly weakens the light squares around W's king, B's LSB is not in a position to immediately exploit this and the isolated d5 pawn is a significant weakness. Qf3 takes advantage of this, and B must play actively and not simply defend the pawn.
If not, then it seems W can easily deflect the attack by swapping darksquared bishops:
In such a position, B's initiative has been blunted and the LSB is hindered by the weak d5 pawn. Plans for White would include moving the knight to the nice outpost on c5 via d2-b3-c5, activating the a-file rook via a4, and targetting the d5 pawn. B may try to weaken W's pawn structure via b4 but that doesn't look too worrying. More likely, he'll play to push on the kingside. Of course, W should be wary of Bf5-e4, exploiting the weak light squares around W's queen. W should then try and take Queens off the board,
Regardless, back to more active lines for B. The two main options seem to be Bg4 or Bf5. Bf5, aiming for e4, seems dangerous, especially if followed by Rae8.
W wants to take an extra pawn on d5 as the price for weak light squares around their king. W's pieces are still underdeveloped and comparatively bad, but W's ability to block the e-file via Be3 and protect some of the light squares via Nd2 may be enough to hold on.
One example of this is after Bf5, where the d2 knight appears to save the game by holding onto e4.
This position is, of course, by no means ideal as W's position is still tangled, given his bishop on e1. But if W can hold on, the passed d pawn will become the decider.
Black might also not swap rooks, for example:
Which is also by no means clear.
My conclusion then is that swapping the lightsquared bishop on move 15 is a difficult and dangerous decision to make, and commits W to defending until the endgame, if he can survive until then. The light squared weakness will become quite significant if W isn't conscious of it, and W's dark squared bishop simply can't compete. But certainly things are not clear for B either.
LINKS TO RESOURCES:
All chess diagrams created using the WiseBoard Chess Board Editor: http://www.apronus.com/chess/wbeditor.php
Games inserted using the amazingly simple instructions of Nikolai Pilafov: http://chesstuff.blogspot.com.au/2008/11/how-to-publish-chess-game-on-your-blog.html